The Costs of Hurricane Emergency Management Services: A Risk-Based Method for Calculating Property Owners' Fair Share¹

Robert E. Deyle and Richard A. Smith, Michael R. Boswell, E. Jay Baker, Mary Kay Falconer, Joseph A. MacDonald²

Abstract

Planning scholars have argued that property owners who develop land in hazardous areas, and thereby impose costs on their communities for emergency planning and disaster recovery, should pay their fair share of those costs. We describe a method of allocating such costs for hurricanes based on relative risk and apply it to Lee County, Florida. We examine the revenue-generating options of local governments and assess the legal feasibility of employing such a risk-based assessment mechanism. In addition, we discuss the political and administrative feasibility of such an assessment. While the impact on most property owners is likely to be modest, we show that a risk-based assessment can achieve tax benefit equity and be the means of financing local government costs of disaster response and recovery not covered by federal and state disaster aid.

Executive Summary

This project was initiated in 1995 by the Florida Planning and Development Laboratory, in collaboration with the Lee County Division of Public Safety, with the objective of developing a practical, risk-based mechanism for financing local emergency management costs associated with hurricanes. This initiative is premised on the tax-benefit-equity principle that property owners should pay for municipal services in proportion to the benefits they receive. It also is premised on the assumption that property owners within a jurisdiction consume differing levels of local emergency management services based on the types of structures on their properties and where those properties are located relative to the hazards associated with hurricanes.

This report details the results of this initiative. We have developed a risk-based financing mechanism that would operate through establishment of a special assessment district in which property owners would be assessed an annual fee based on their share of the total hurricane risks attributable to private land development within a local jurisdiction. The fee would provide revenues to pay for the jurisdictions annual costs of emergency management associated with planning, preparedness, and mitigation for hurricanes and for capitalizing a contingency fund for paying the local governments share of the costs of response and recovery from a hurricane disaster.

We devised a method for estimating the annualized costs to a local government associated with emergency management associated with hurricanes and calculated that these costs would range from $1.2 to $1.7 million per year in 1995 dollars for Lee County, Florida. We defined three components of these costs:

(1) annualized costs of emergency protective measures, including evacuation, that would be incurred when the county is threatened by an approaching hurricane;

(2) annualized costs of response and recovery in the event that a hurricane strikes the county; and

(3) annual costs of planning, preparedness, and mitigation based on 1995 data obtained from county agencies that play a significant role in these activities.

We devised four risk indices to define the relative share that each taxable structure should be assessed annually to offset these costs:

(1) an anticipatory protective measures index that is based on the annual probability of evacuating a developed property parcel;

(2) a damage risk index that is based on an annualized estimate of the amount of damage a given structure would sustain from all possible hurricanes due to wind, waves, and storm-surge flooding;

(3) a public facility risk index that is based on the square footage and assessed value of a given structure and is used to approximate a property owners fair share of the costs for repair and reconstruction of damage to public facilities and infrastructure; and

(4) a composite risk index to apply to the annual costs of planning, preparedness, and mitigation.

We applied these indices to all developed properties within Lee County in 1998 to calculate annual assessments based on our estimates of local emergency management costs associated with hurricanes. We assumed that the county would capitalize a contingency fund to cover event costs based on estimated annualized event costs. As discussed further in Chapter 4 of the full report, a local government might choose one of several different strategies for accumulating money in such a contingency fund. The strategy selected will affect the amount of revenue to be raised each year and, therefore, the annual assessments for developed properties in the jurisdiction.

Under our low-range estimate of total annualized local emergency management costs ($1.2 million), the individual special assessments would range from $0.01 to $6,465 per year with a median assessment of $5.53. Under our high-range estimate of annual county costs ($1.7 million), the individual special assessments would range from $0.01 to $8,160 per year with a median assessment of $8.14. If we account for what the owners of these parcels already pay in property taxes to the county general fund, the net change in annual tax liability that would result from a risk-based special assessment under our high-range estimate would range from a tax decrease of $1,000 per year to an increase of $5,477. The median tax change across all developed parcels, however, is much more moderate, a tax increase of $2.00 per year. The median tax increase for the most at-risk parcels, i.e., the upper quintile, would be $11.25 per year, while the median tax decrease for the lowest-risk parcels, i.e. the bottom quintile, would be -$4.30.

The change in tax liability varies with structure type and location. Mobile homes have relatively high vulnerability and low assessed values regardless of location and, therefore, typically would experience a tax increase. Mean tax differentials for mobile homes in different political subdivisions within the county range from an increase of $9.04 to $11.45. Single-family residential structures generally have higher assessed values and are less vulnerable to wind damage. Their mean tax differentials range from a tax decrease of $2.18 to a tax increase of $8.26. Commercial and industrial structures typically would experience tax decreases on the order of $8.00 to $16.00 per year.

We devised a Microsoft Access data base program to calculate the assessments. Implementation of the special assessment as designed would require linking such a program to the jurisdictions data base of developed property parcels and annual updates of that data base including new structures, demolished structures, and any renovations that would alter the assessed value of a structure or its vulnerability to hurricane damage.

This project demonstrates that it is possible to define differential levels of benefit to developed property for local hurricane emergency management services based on spatial variations in exposure and variations in the vulnerability of structural improvements. A number of approximations are necessary both in quantifying the costs of services provided and in defining the relative risk attributes of developed properties. However, with some modification of budgeting practices to more explicitly define ongoing agency costs of hurricane emergency management, these approximations would likely be judged to be reasonable within the broad authority local governments have to levy special assessments.

A risk-based property assessment can serve important policy purposes. While the magnitude of the assessment is not likely to be great enough to influence private development decisions, the equity principals upon which it is based are widely embraced. Such a policy initiative would be an important step towards establishing greater expectations for individuals to assume responsibility for the risks they incur by developing land in hazardous areas. Moreover, if federal or state policies require local governments to pay a greater share of the costs of recovery, there is likely to be both greater demand for tax benefit equity from local taxpayers, and a greater need for communities to set aside funds for disaster response and recovery.

Chapter 1: Introduction

This project was initiated in 1995 by the Florida Planning and Development Laboratory at Florida State University in collaboration with the Lee County, Florida, Division of Public Safety, with the objective of developing a practical, risk-based mechanism for financing local emergency management costs associated with hurricanes. This initiative is premised on the tax-benefit-equity principle that property owners should pay for municipal services in proportion to the benefits they receive. It also is premised on the assumption that property owners within a jurisdiction consume differing levels of local emergency management services based on the types of structures on their properties and where those properties are located relative to the hazards associated with hurricanes.

Tax benefit equity is an axiom of normative tax policy that can be traced to the contract theory of the state as it was defined by such writers as Locke and Hobbes and Adam Smith's first canon of taxation (Musgrave and Musgrave, 1984: 228). Local governments traditionally have applied this concept to such public services as street lighting, fire protection, water and sewer service, and trash collection, where it is a fairly simple matter to distinguish property owners who consume the services from those who do not and to measure the amount of the service they consume.

More recently, a number of planning scholars have advocated extending the tax benefit equity concept to public services that are necessitated by the development of land that is exposed to natural hazards (Burby, 1991; Burby, 1998; Burby and French, 1985; Godschalk et al.,1989; Godschalk et al, 1999; Smith and Deyle, 1997). While it is acknowledged that all land is subject to some natural hazards (e.g., wind, hail, and lightning), risks from other hazards such as flooding, storm surge, waves, and wildfire, vary spatially at a scale that is relevant to local land use planning. Furthermore, vulnerability to most natural hazards also varies with the type of structural improvements that are made to land and the design and construction of those improvements.

The essence of this argument is that where property owners choose to develop land in hazardous areas, and thereby make it necessary for local governments to provide emergency management services as well as public infrastructure that is also exposed to natural hazards, they should pay the majority of the costs for planning, preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery by local government. Such a policy requires a method of allocating appropriate shares of the costs based on relative risk that is practical and legally and politically defensible. There is little experience, however, with operationalizing the concept of risk-based tax benefit equity, and little research has been done to assess the options for recouping the costs of providing emergency management services both before and after disasters. We have undertaken such an effort focused on local disaster management services necessitated by development of land exposed to hurricanes.

In this project report, using data for Lee County, we demonstrate a method for defining and measuring the benefits property owners derive from emergency management services where they are attributable to hazards such as hurricanes that vary spatially and where private decisions about structure type and design affect the necessity for such services. We show that local governments are likely to be able to use a risk-based special assessment for financing emergency management services, in the form of a special benefit assessment, under their existing revenue-generating powers. We find, however, that the total local government costs that would be covered by such an assessment are relatively small under current federal and state disaster assistance policies. As a result, establishing and administering such an assessment might not be viewed as cost-effective, and the potential for such an assessment to influence development decisions is likely to be small. On the other hand, the small effect of such an assessment on most property owners tax bills suggests that tax redistribution issues are not likely to pose serious political obstacles to implementation. Moreover, where communities do not presently have a contingency fund to pay for costs of disaster response and recovery, a risk-based assessment may offer a more politically acceptable method of financing such a fund. The system described here can be applied by other jurisdictions exposed to hurricanes, and it can be extended to other natural hazards for which risk varies spatially at a local scale or as a function of the type and design of structural improvements on land.

View all of chapter one here: Chapter One

Chapter 2: Local Emergency Management Services for Natural Hazards and Application to Hurricanes in Lee County, Florida

Introduction

If the tax benefit equity concept is accepted on principle, the first step toward assessing the utility of a risk-based property assessment is defining and quantifying the services provided. This requires identifying local emergency management services provided to the owners of developed property parcels that can be attributed to one or more hazards. These services can be divided into two major categories: (1) ongoing services and (2) event services. Ongoing services include planning, preparedness, and mitigation activities that occur independent of specific disasters. Event services include response to an anticipated or actual disaster and recovery from the impacts of disasters that do affect the jurisdiction.

Our approach estimates total average annual service costs for a local government so that these costs can be allocated across developed parcels within the jurisdiction on the basis of the relative risk posed by the structures that have been erected. In addition, the estimate of event costs can be used as the basis for developing a local contingency fund designed to cover the costs of response to and recovery from specified natural disasters.

View all of chapter two here: Chapter Two

Chapter 3: Risk-Based Assessment for Emergency Management Services

Introduction

As discussed in Chapter 1, the tax benefit equity principle that underlies this initiative requires that the costs of local emergency management services necessitated by development of land exposed to natural hazards be allocated among property owners in proportion to the demand they create for such services. Relative risk can be used as the basis for allocating these costs where service consumption can be linked to the vulnerability of structural improvements on private property and the vulnerability of public facilities and infrastructure that are provided to serve that property. We apply this concept by developing a series of risk indices for developed property parcels that can be applied to different components of the local emergency management services described in Chapter 2. In the next sections we describe our generic approach to defining the relative risk indices and then provide a detailed account of how we applied this approach to hurricanes using data available for Lee County, Florida.

View all of chapter two here: Chapter Three

Chapter 4: Annual Assessment Levies and Their Impacts

Introduction

In this chapter we apply the risk-based assessment method described in Chapter 3 to the local emergency management costs estimated in Chapter 2 to illustrate what the annual assessment levies would be in Lee County, Florida, if a risk-based annual assessment were employed to fund local emergency management costs associated with hurricanes. We examine the distributional effects of such an assessment on different types of developed property. We also look at the determinants of the tax differentials that would result with a shift to a risk-based assessment.

View all of chapter four here: Chapter Four

Chapter 5: Implementation Issues

Introduction

Aside from the issue raised in Chapter 4 concerning the manner in which a local government accumulates revenues for the local share of the response and recovery costs of a hurricane, two other implementation issues deserve attention: (1) local government options for levying a risk-based assessment for emergency management services and (2) the political feasibility of the concept. Assessment options are a direct function of the revenue-generating authority local governments have under state law; thus the legal feasibility of a risk-based assessment for emergency management services may vary among the states. Political feasibility is likely to hinge on several issues including the perceived fairness of the assessment method, the redistribution effects of a new tax mechanism, and the administrative costs.

In this chapter we explore these two implementation issues and offer some concluding thoughts on the merits of a risk-based assessment for local emergency management services.

View all of chapter five here: Chapter Five

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Appendix A: Multivariate Model for Estimating Local Government Event Costs

In the following sections we summarize the data, variables, and analytic strategy we followed to develop the multivariate model of the public costs of responding to and recovering from hurricanes.

View all of Appendix A here: Appendix A

Appendix B: Estimation of Probabilities of Initiating Protective Measures

We estimated the probabilities of initiating protective measures for Lee County in anticipation of an approaching storm by analyzing historic storm data from the National Hurricane Centers HURDAT data base. Our procedure was as follows:

View all of Appendix B here: Appendix B

Appendix C: Estimation of Hurricane Strike Probabilities

For purposes of our analysis of event costs, we define a hurricane strike as exposure of the jurisdiction to hurricane-force winds. To estimate the probabilities of such events, we modified the National Hurricane Centers (NHC) Hurricane Center Risk Analysis Program (HURISK) (Neumann, 1987) for calculating the return probabilities for a hurricane passing within a specified distance (the scan circle) from a specified point. Neumann (1987, 1) characterizes HURISK as:

. . . [A] computerized model for assessing the long-term vulnerability of coastal areas to tropical cyclone events. Program output, essentially graphical, is in the form of 18 charts and diagrams. These charts depict tropical cyclone tracks, motion, intensity, and wind return periods for any coastal or near-coastal site over the Atlantic tropical cyclone basin. For input, the program accesses current NHC files of historical tropical cyclone data. Program output can therefore be updated as the need arises.

The HURISK method defines the position(s) of a hurricane by the extent of the radius of maximum winds (RMW), not by the hurricanes center. If the RMW falls within the specified scan circle, the hurricane is counted for the calculation of return probabilities. The HURISK method, however, under-estimates the return probabilities for hurricane-force winds because of the dependence on the RMW as the only measure of a hurricane's passage. For example, a strong hurricane could pass within 20 nautical miles (n.mi.) of the specified scan circle but would not be counted if the RMW did not reach the scan circle. Hurricane-force winds would reach the boundaries of the scan circle, though, but would not be counted. Since our interest is in how often hurricane-force winds will occur within the scan circle, we have modified the HURISK method.

View all of Appendix C here: Appendix C

Appendix D: Microsoft Access® Program for Assessing Improved Property in Lee County, Florida

Introduction

The data and algorithms used to calculate a risk-based special assessment for local emergency management costs associated with hurricanes in Lee County, Florida, are contained in two linked Microsoft Access files:db1.mdb and db2.mdb. The data, obtained from the Lee County Property Appraiser's Office, are contained in db1.mdb. The queries and tables used to calculate the special assessment for each property parcel under the assumptions used in the project, are contained in db1.mdb. The files must be installed in a directory on the c: drive with the name “JMacDonald” for the links to operate.

The following are detailed instructions for some of the more enigmatic portions of the special assessment algorithm. Though some of these tasks may repeat themselves in the algorithm, one set of explanations is presented as an example. In addition to syntax techniques, information also is provided about the logic behind the protocol.

View all of Appendix D here: Appendix D

Acknowledgments

This endeavor is the result of a long collaboration between the principal investigators, Richard Smith and Robert Deyle. Richard succumbed to cancer in September 1999, but this final report is in great measure a product of his intellect, his hard work, and his writing.

Michael Boswell and Jay Baker played major roles in developing and executing the methodologies for estimating the costs of hurricanes and defining the relative risk attributable to individual developed property parcels. Mary Kay Falconer conducted the research for and wrote portions of the section concerning local government options for implementing a risk-based tax for financing local emergency management services associated with hurricanes. Joseph MacDonald developed the data base management program for performing the risk-based assessment calculations and conducted the analysis of the determinants of a property owners likely tax differential under a risk-based assessment.

We conducted this research under the auspices of the Florida Sea Grant College Program with support from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Sea Grant, U.S. Department of Commerce, Grant No. R/C-P-21. We received significant technical and logistical support for this project from John Wilson, Lee County Public Safety Director, and Terry Bray of the Lee County Property Appraisers Office.

Reprinted by permission: Portions of this report are excerpted from the article "Risk-Based Taxation of Hazardous Land Development" by Robert E. Deyle and Richard A Smith, originally published in the Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 66. No. 4, 2000. Permission is granted by the publisher to reproduce Tables 2-4, 2-6, 2-7, 2-8, 2-12, 4-1, 4-2, 5-1 and Equations 3-1, 3-4, 3-5, 3-6, and 4-1 through the University of Florida's IFAS Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS) without charge.

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Footnotes

1. This document is TP-121 published by the Florida Sea Grant College Program. Florida Sea Grant is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, grant number NA76RG-0120. Published December 2002.

2. Robert E. Deyle and Richard A. Smith (deceased)

Department of Urban and Regional Planning

Florida State University

Michael R. Boswell

City & Regional Planning Department

California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo

E. Jay Baker

Department of Geography

Florida State University

Mary Kay Falconer

Institute for Science and Public Affairs

Florida State University

Joseph A. MacDonald

Department of City and Regional Planning

University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

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